Unlocking the Power of Assumption Busting: Navigating Priorities with Confidence
"In product development, too many assumptions can be the silent killer of innovation." - Eric Ries
Assumptions—those sneaky culprits that often lead us down the treacherous path of uncertainty. As the saying goes, "To assume makes an 'ass' out of 'u' and 'me.'" In the realm of product development, it's crucial to prove or disprove assumptions to make informed decisions. But what if you're drowning in a sea of assumptions, a predicament all too familiar for startups searching for their product-market fit? Fear not; our Excessive Assumption-Busting Workshop is here to guide you. We'll show you how to pinpoint your riskiest and most uncertain assumptions, providing the clarity and direction you need to make strategic bets.
Supplies
In Person Teams: Sharpies, Sticky Notes, a Wall/White Board
Remote Teams: Use Miro, Figjam or whatever collaboration tools you use
Prep: (5 mins)
Draw your prioritization plot ahead of time and label your axis
Step 1. Assemble your Dream Team
Gather your team and embark on an assumption-hunting mission. Each participant grabs a stack of sticky notes and a pen and jots down their assumptions one per sticky. Don't hold back – note down all the areas where uncertainty, insufficient feedback, or ambiguity prevails.
Prompting Questions:
Do we have the right core audience?
Are we solving the right problem?
Do we have the right User Journey, are we missing any steps?
What have we assumed success looks like, is that correct?
Find more prompting questions here
Step 2. Plot the Assumptions
With a collection of assumptions at your disposal, it's time to bring order to the chaos. You'll create a prioritization plot, with one axis measuring how much you currently know about each assumption and the other assessing the risk involved if you're proven wrong. As you plot each assumption on this map, ask the group: "How catastrophic would it be if we were off the mark on this assumption? And how much do we truly comprehend about it?" Starting with one assumption at a time, continue adding them and have the group weigh each one against the previous, determining if it's more or less risky than the previous.
Pro Tip: Depending on your group size you may want to limit each person to pick their favorite 2-3, you will see repeated ideas and for those you can add stickers or marks to the stickies.
Step 3. Unveil your Assumptions Map
As the map fills with assumptions, your group will reach a consensus on their placement. It's an enlightening moment where you'll visualize your collective understanding of the potential risks lurking within your product.
Step 4. Identify your Priorities
Take a closer look at your map, and you'll notice a cluster of assumptions huddled in the top-right corner. These are your priority items, demanding immediate attention. If your entire list ends up in this quadrant, it's time to redraw your axes, forcing your team to confront the most pressing priorities head-on.
What is in the top left, your high risk - known items, you can plan out. What is in the bottom left, your low risk - known items, you can defer to a later date. What is in the bottom right, your low risk - unknown item you can choose to evaluate further in another exercise. Finally, what is in the top right corner is what you need to investigate and focus your attention on.
Step 5. Let the Quest Begin ⚔️
Now that you have your priorities, it's time to spring into action. Assign roles within your team and embark on the quest to uncover as much information as possible. Start with a hypothesis and test it rigorously. This is the phase where assumption-busting becomes a strategic game, leading to informed and confident decision-making.
In the end, the Excessive Assumption-Busting Workshop is more than just a process; it's a journey into the heart of product development, a quest for clarity and certainty. With this method in your arsenal, you'll take each step forward with confidence, making strategic decisions backed by robust evidence. Say goodbye to uncertainty, and welcome the power of assumption-busting into your product development journey. It's time to navigate with clarity, make strategic bets, and steer your team toward success!